2023 NFL PREVIEW
It’s been a while since I have done one of these with more
than a blurb on each team. For the first time since I stopped writing
frequently, I had the urge to go a little deeper this season because my
excitement has gotten to a level higher than other recent years. I’m not sure
why, but it might be because the Bears and Browns (yes, I have two teams) each
have interesting seasons ahead of them.
If there are any new eyes on this, the methodology I use is
varied. I read the preview from Aaron Schatz (Formerly from Football Outsiders,
now at FTN Network) and Warren Sharp’s as well. I listen to a ton of podcasts.
I go based off the actual schedule while considering rest, home/away, gut feel,
possible surprises, boomerang effects, injury history, and QBs. Then I pick
each game on the schedule, week by week, game by game.
For those who care about such things, I have been within 2
wins for each team over 85% of the time in my writings. However, I am always
prone to missing the 1-2 surprise teams since I consider data so much. I tend
to have less turnover in the playoffs than I should. It’s hard for me to
predict teams like the Vikings of last year who win close games at an
unprecedented rate or the mystery team whose fumble luck gets them to a +20
turnover ratio. Let’s have some fun.
AFC EAST
New York Jets (12-5, 3rd seed)- I am as
concerned about the offensive line as most should be. I don’t like teams who go
on “Hard Knocks.” Rodgers is old and might be playing high or might get locked
inside of a dark chamber, missing two games. However, the defense does what any
great modern defense can do—defend the pass with a combination of at least one
shutdown corner while rushing the passer well with a rotation of guys. The team
had a horrific offense because of bad coaching and a bad QB who had no chance
of ridding himself of his ails. The team will be ahead in games much more often
and they now have a full RB room and a HOF QB with the best interception rate
in history. Look up J.T. O’Sullivan and “The QB School” on YouTube. Watch any
Wilson video. Think about switching him for Rodgers. That’s why I’m in.
New England Patriots (10-7)- They are 25-25 since Tom Brady left. Some of Darth Hoodie’s decisions are quite confusing. His recent draft record is terrible. In fact, it’s always been average. When I was writing full-time for FootballPros (now gone, was site owned by Cris Collinsworth before he bought PFF), I got tired of hearing how much of genius Belichick was with the draft. With that muse, in 2012, I developed “The Draft Analyzer” that figured out 5-year swaths of bust rates, retention rates, starter rates. He was average in every category except for the number of picks made. His genius was trading for picks to make more mistakes and have more hits. He knows so much about football now that I wonder if he just tries dumb things to make it interesting—like making a defensive coach the Offensive Coordinator. It took one season of watching the maybe not-so-secretly dirty player Mac Jones regress to make Hoodie return to reality. The defense will be great. The special teams will be great. I see a passable offense along with the typical tricks on defense. They get 3-4 free wins facing terrible quarterbacks. I’m pretty sure they can split the rest.
Buffalo Bills (10-7)- I love Bills fans. When I see
them here in Cleveland, they always have a shot and brat ready for you. There
are my kind of people. For the past three seasons, I have liked this team. I’m
sorry that I don’t believe in them as much this season. The defense is older
and lost some talent. I question where the pass rush will come from. Am I
supposed to believe that Von Miller, with an additional injury and now 34 years
old, will immediately fix everything when he can play? I get that Josh Allen
was on pace for historical numbers before his UCL injury, but am I supposed to
believe he won’t get hurt with the way he plays while also expecting a jump
from any receiver or running back not named Stefon Diggs? They probably would
be better off playing their top two TEs more often, but it seems Allen is at
his best playing off-schedule while firing piss missiles from 45 yards away from
his target. Remember that playoff game last year when his own stadium took away
a part of their offense and the Bengals showed up as the tougher team? I do.
Miami Dolphins (9-8)- It’s wild to me that I have
this as the second-best division in the league, but only one playoff team from
it. Unfortunately, that’s the attrition that can happen when the teams beat up
on each other and must face an improved AFC West and a tough NFC East. I love
the Miami offense. I like what the defense can do. I think that Mike McDaniel
has good schemes and should do a little sketch comedy on the side. The stories
about Tua being able to take hits better are interesting and I even think that
teaching techniques on how to fall through martial arts training is valuable to
him. However, there will be a time this season when he will take a hit where he
cannot control the fall. Some guy who runs a 4.5 at 275 pounds will get him
when he tries to escape the pocket at a key moment, or when he holds the ball
.5 seconds too long on third down, or just when a free blitzer is not seen.
Will he get up? What about the next time it happens? The next time? I hope it never
happens and I hope he always gets up, but that view is not intellectually
honest. I’m not looking forward to the likely end of Tua’s career, whether it's
this season or ten years from now. Finally, it’s just hard for me to believe in
a front office and ownership group that has been a trash fire for years. Don’t
forget about Brian Flores.
AFC NORTH
Cincinnati Bengals (13-4, 2nd seed)- I didn’t
want to pick the Bengals to win this division, but I just can’t find many
high-likelihoods that can provide that conclusion. Yes, if the calf heard
around the sports world pops, the Bengals would not make the playoffs. If 2/3
of the wide receivers are hurt. If the running game cannot supplement Burrow.
If the defense that confounded everybody was solved in the off-season. If the
pass rush disappears. If the re-made back end of the defense stinks. They’re
too deep and too young and there’s just not enough evidence to suggest those
things will occur. I have them starting 5-1 into the bye and then going 4-1
right after. There are no spots I can find where a skid happens. The Bengals
are good. Next year gets a lot more interesting because they will have Burrow’s
new contract on the books and may have to make some tough personnel decisions
that could affect the star players.
Baltimore Ravens (11-6, 6th seed)- Todd
Monken is a big deal. The offense will be more like what Lamar Jackson ran at
Louisville rather than relying on scheming Mark Andrews open 8 yards down
field, right in front of Jackson’s eyes. I truly believe that the question
standing in front of Lamar Jackson and another run at MVP is only injury. I am
not buying the idea that they will have enough growing pains with the offense to
affect the record. I see that they have three division games in the first five
weeks. So, why don’t I buy that narrative? Week 1 is at home versus Houston.
Week 3 is at home versus Indianapolis. The real question about the Ravens is
the defense. Can it provide enough pass rush? Maybe. Can it cover anybody?
Probably not. That’s precisely why I like Lamar Jackson as an MVP candidate.
They are going to need 30 points in several games to win. The other thing that
might be inevitable is Roquan Smith leading the league in tackles. If things go
sideways, he will have plenty of running backs to tackle. If it doesn’t, the defense
will still be on the field for a ton of plays.
Cleveland Browns (11-6, 7th seed)- I know
that no one wants to talk about the Browns. The NFL doesn’t want them in the
playoffs since they hate talking about bad news. A large portion of the
national media refuses to talk about them in depth. I heard an AFC preview that
spent less than 2% of their podcast on them. There are a lot of 6-11 predictions,
with several of them coming from NFL Network personalities. I am biased because
I am a fan of the team, but I think it is okay to talk about them without
discussing the obvious cloud over them. I’m not heartless, but we all know the
cloud is there. There is no additional news. In a way, the Browns are the
easiest team to decide on because the season is predicated upon whether Watson
plays like he did in Houston or if the team implodes around his poor play. It
seems almost impossible for him to be as bad as he was last year, but a lot of
people are writing off the idea that he will be better. Outside of having of
full season of that guy, the front office has done everything it could to cover
up recent bad drafts by spending smartly on valuable veterans while attempting
to get enough young talent that could put the team over the top. Yes, none of
it will matter if Watson stinks. The sports world will celebrate if that
happens and a lot of Browns fans will, too, while falling back into the
comfortable misery of failure. What I found interesting in my analysis is that
the pressure around the team will only increase as they start 1-3 into the bye.
It’s going to be an amazing two weeks of coverage by the local and national
media. It is possible that the 6-11 record happens. Stefanski may prove to be a
terrible coach instead of an average one. The schedule, though, makes that hard
to happen. I have a point from the middle to near the end of the season where
they win seven of eight games. I see a team with more depth than the last two
seasons. I see a new defensive scheme that fits the personnel much better. The
Browns as a football team are one of the more interesting ones in the league. I
wish people were willing to talk about them.
Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7)- The City of Pittsburgh
will be building a statue for Mike Tomlin. His sound bites are insane
sometimes, but the man knows how to put together a football team. He never has
a losing record. However, something else insane happened this preseason. Kenny
Pickett, a limited quarterback whom I liked in general, had an incredible
series of fake football games where they scored a TD on every drive he played.
If one listens to Pittsburgh sports radio, he is the next Tom Brady. He’s going
to have to be if the offense makes it to a level beyond league average. They
cannot have any injuries to the receiving corps. They are hoping for a sliver
of life from Allen Robinson III (There isn’t, and they don’t employ Miracle
Max). Diontae Johnson likes to drop footballs. Najee Harris may be a rich man’s
Trent Richardson or poor man’s Eddie Lacy. Why do I think the number of big
runs will increase this season (league worst)? Are they really going to double
the amount of passing TDs from last season (league worst 12 with 7 by KP)? They
will be a great defense and I have them as a league surprise, starting 4-0, but
tailing off as the schedule dynamics get less friendly. With 45 total wins,
this is the best division in the league, but it certainly helps to play the NFC
West and AFC South.
AFC SOUTH
Jacksonville Jaguars (10-7, 4th seed)- “Worst
Division Ever”-The Comic Book Guy. With 25 total wins, the AFC South is pegged
to be the softest division in the league. I have a hard time fully buying into
the type around the team. I think the defense is questionable. I know the
offensive line stinks and their left tackle is suspended. I do believe in the
idea that Trevor Lawrence is now the best quarterback in the division, but with
two rookies and the steady mediocrity of Ryan Tannehill as the competition,
it’s not a high bar to clear. I like Travis Etienne but question his ability to
stay on the field. Calvin Ridley has looked the part after missing the last
year and a half of games but needs to prove it in real game action. They couldn’t
beat Patrick Mahomes on one leg, but it’s a good thing the division is the
equivalent of facing a boxer with no arms. They will be forgotten about, play
in the first Wild Card window and only talked about again in next year’s
previews. I shouldn’t need to make many edits to this paragraph next year.
Tennessee Titans (8-9)- I implore anyone reading this
to go over to “The Ringer” and read what is probably Kevin Clark’s last article
for them. Mike Vrabel is everyone’s favorite asshole. I like him, too. He will
get bad teams to play better than they should. This is a bottom six team in the
league in terms of talent. Malik Willis may be playing more snaps this season
than anyone wants. I’m not sure if Hopkins has much left. I guess the tight end
can catch passes, too. Derrick Henry hasn’t fallen off a cliff yet, but he
can’t be very far away from it, either. The secondary looks bad again. They
will win games they shouldn’t, and I hope that management keeps Vrabel for the
long term while ignoring some rough patches that are bound to happen. They have
another Mike Tomlin. I have them off to
a rough start, but being a team that goes on a late run to provide some
optimism for next year. There will have to be significant development of
in-house talent along with better veteran decisions for that to happen.
Indianapolis Colts (4-13)- Jim Irsay seems like a man
of the people on Twitter, or X, or whatever I’m supposed to call it now. He
should stay on there and never go into the office. Despite having the money to
do so in a way where a running back contract wouldn’t be as bad as another team
giving one, Irsay decided to tell Jonathan Taylor that he is worthless while
simultaneously proving that they are not serious about trading him by asking
for a 1st round pick or multiple star players for him. It makes no
sense, but it is also a problem that should be addressed by the players during
the next CBA negotiations. I also don’t think the team is doing any favors for
their young QB, either. Right now, Anthony Richardson is a much more athletic
Jeff George. He needs a lot of work that could be helped by, I don’t know,
having a happy workhorse running back that is capable of leading the league in
rushing. There are a lot of holes on the team overall, but what matters when
the offense is destined to struggle for most of the season.
Houston Texans
(3-14)- There’s not a lot of difference between the Houston Texans and the
Colts. However, the Texans offense might have a decent line and they do have a
running back happy to tote the rock. They can cover a little bit.
Unfortunately, the Texans have slight differences in the schedule that have me
giving them one less win. They won’t be able to do a lot well for long periods
of time, but they could get up to 6 wins if Stroud develops because he isn’t on
the ground as much as other rookies. Right now, the only ones happy to see this
prediction are the Arizona Cardinals, because this shakes out to them having
the #1 and the #2 pick of the draft (SPOILER ALERT). It’s easy to call a former
Ohio State QB to be the one who busts, but Will Anderson better be good.
AFC WEST
Kansas City Chiefs (14-3. 1st seed)- I
have a friend who went to Texas Tech. I am a Mets fan who knows all about Pat
Mahomes. The greatness of Patrick Mahomes II cannot be denied. His baseball
background and genetics somehow created an arm that can throw a football as if
it is a baseball. He can do it from angles not seen before. He’s toughed out
injuries and proven that he is the perfect football nerd to pair with Andy
Reid. He’s wholesome and married his high school sweetheart. His teammates love
him. He’s never had a legal headline. I should like him. No. I should love him.
It’s taken me a long time to figure out
why I don’t find him very likeable. His wife did get on my nerves during
“Quarterback” on Netflix and his brother seems like a real piece of work, but
those things are not usually part of my emotional evaluation. He even has some
of my characteristics. He’s a bit awkward and comes off dorky. Then I figured
it out. I’m just insanely jealous and angry and I can’t shake it. No one should
be that dorky and be the most talented quarterback of all time. He’s not an
underdog with a cool story, it’s just not fair. Plus, the Bears could’ve had
him and instead got fooled by the Niners to trade up for Mitch Trubisky, who
happened to go to my high school. That’s one notch for direct emotional pain. Finally,
I root for the rust belt teams to be good. He managed to crush the hearts of
Buffalo when I was sure the Bills were winning the Super Bowl. Patrick Mahomes
II is a piercing dagger hitting multiple points of my life’s narrative that I
just can’t shake. Normally, I’m a leveled headed guy who is still prone to
bursts of emotion before calming down into the analytic side of everything. I
just can’t do it with Mahomes, and it makes me a little sad that I can’t like
him. I guess I need to provide a prediction. They’re great. Those jerks. Okay,
fine, they should sign Chris Jones since they are 28th in pressure
rate with him off the field and #1 with him on it. If they don’t, they’ll
probably just find a way to score more points. Super jerks.
Los Angeles Chargers (12-5, 5th seed)- What
the Patriots did with their offense last year was dumb, but what the Chargers
did to Justin Herbert was criminal. It looked like Herbert was healed enough a
few weeks after his rib injury to conduct a real offense. The team chose not
to. He had one of the lowest ADOTs (Average Depth of Target) in the league. It
was like going to war and knowing your advantage is having the best tanks in
the world and then deciding to show up with NERF dart guns. With a changed
offense, the Chargers got my faith just one more time. They have failed me and
my predictions more often than a Shottenheimer offense in the postseason. There
is one major reason to not trust the Chargers. Injuries. They have a lot of
guys who like to get injured. As great as Allen, Bosa, and Mike Williams are,
they like to get hurt. The left tackle got hurt last year. Obviously, Herbert
got hurt. The only major predictor for injury is previous injury. The body
never tends to be the same. Some part overcompensates or the part affected is
now weaker forever. It’s even tougher in the NFL when there’s more of a chance
for freak injury than other sports. I wonder a bit about the coaching staff and
how the team failed to close out the Jaguars in the playoffs. It was unforgiveable,
but I am willing to buy the talent this season. This is the last time I buy
them, though, until I talk myself into it next May.
Denver Broncos (7-10)- The defense is going to be
good and that’s all I am sure of. They have already lost a couple of pass
catchers to injury, and no one knows Jerry Jeudy will ever stay healthy. I have
spent a portion of my Twitter life pointing out how fake Russell Wilson is and
how no one really likes him, but that was forgiven when he was putting teams
within reach of a title. After last season and the fallout in Seattle while
seeing them succeed without him, there are plenty of questions surrounding
Wilson. Sean Payton and his no big hat attitude is now leading the team. The
lack of announcements and PR tweets from Wilson this offseason was noticeable.
I’ve heard plenty about Wilson’s weight loss of 15-20 pounds, but I wonder how
effective the offense can be with questions at the skill positions. Payton
cannot fall back on the ridiculous accuracy of Drew Brees and I wonder how
short the leash really is in Denver. Wait, I just agreed with Mike Lombardi. I
change everything. I love Russell Wilson. (long pause) In reality, though, this
record is more about my faith in the defense than any sort of bounce back from
Russell Wilson.
Las Vegas Raiders (4-13)- Death, taxes, and someone
believing that Josh McDaniels is the answer. I hope some people in the future
will do the proper research about McDaniels and find that there is not much
support in the idea that he was the reason for success for teams he has been
involved with. Maybe that education will be more likely to happen after this
inevitable flameout in Vegas. They got rid of a QB to get one that may be worse
and will get injured. Plus, Jimmy G. has a fetish (more than other fetish) for
finding opposing safeties open over the middle of the field. Josh Jacobs is unlikely to repeat his
production. With 393 touches last year, the
“Curse of 370” may just take him out. Their defense stunk last year and then
added no one while getting older. Chandler Jones is coming off a poor season.
It’s going to be rough to see Aidan O’Connell get his introduction to the
league against the Patriots in week 6.
NFC EAST
Philadelphia Eagles (11-6. 1st seed)- That
record and seed is not a typo. The Eagles are still a great team. Jalen Hurts
has increased his completion rate each season and it might jump to 68-70 percent
this season. The backfield is deep with four viable options. The pass rush
should still be there. The team lost Fletcher Cox, but then drafted a player
capable of Rookie Defensive Player of the Year in Jalen Carter. If Carter stops
having horrible driving incidents that seem to be part of the culture at
Georgia (They have had no less than 11 driving-related events since January),
the team has no weaknesses. I guess the true spoiler here is just how much I do
not trust the NFC this season. I have the AFC at 148 total wins over the NFC’s
124. No other NFC team is at 11 wins for me. Count this as the prediction most
likely to be wrong, but the paper is not kind to the Conference. The Eagles are
the most talented team, though. They are not the “7” hanging out with a bunch
of threes. They are a “ten” that had a bad hair week (tough schedule) while hanging
out with a bunch of threes.
Dallas Cowboys (9-8, 6th seed)- Much like
the Eagles, I like the Cowboys in general. There are concerns, though. Tony
Pollard might be as good as most of the world expects him to be, but he will
have to tote the ball for 200+ carries for the first time in his career. While
he certainly looks the part, it is a question I want answered before fully
buying in. At only 25 years old, he should have the tread there, but I just
want to see it. I also would like to see Dak Prescott stop throwing bad
interceptions and I am not totally sold on the receiving corps outside of
CeeDee Lamb. Mike Gallup is latest addition to the IHSHAS (If He Stays Healthy
All-Stars). The offensive line is just not going to be as good as recent years,
though it will be good enough to provide enough protection for the offense to
run. I do expect the defense to be great. They will carry this team to some
wins when Dak isn’t playing well, but I would trust them more if the middle of
the roster was better than it is. If any of those top 5 players get hurt, they
are in trouble.
New York Giants (8-9)- Even though I expect a
horrible season for the NFC, that mediocrity should produce some fun divisional
races. Saquon Barkley should be great again as he searches for a real contract,
but it is quite telling when tight ends are getting close to double the money
than the star running backs. Unfortunately, it’s going to be a long time before
running backs are respected and paid well again. If running backs want to blame
nerds like me, they could, but even casual fans sometimes know about the “Curse
of 370” made famous by Football Outsiders (sad end to that era, but good to see
Schatz and company finding their feet). Really, though, it’s running backs that
are hurt worst by the Franchise Tag in the CBA. They can be used up before a second
contract with 3-5 years on a rookie deal plus two franchise tags. That’s less
true for every other position. Changing that is going to be tough. CBA negotiations
are seven years away and it would take a real strike for the Franchise Tag to
go away. It may take a strike to limit it to just one use per player. The
owners love the Franchise Tag. At that point, it would take support funds from
the top 10% for the 80% of the league that can’t afford to miss those
paychecks. Also, while I do like what’s going on overall for Big Blue, I think
last year was a year too early and I think that Danny Dimes is still not the
true long-term answer. According to PFF, he had 7 big-time throws all last
season when several guys had games better than that. I’m watching this team for next year.
Washington Commanders (8-9)- Calling them the
Washington Football Team was much better. The horrible name change was one of
the last of many atrocities foisted upon the world by Chainsaw Dan (This is a
reference to an old story reported on by Gregg Easterbrook—it’s truly fascinating).
As always, the saddest part of the shitty rich guys and their supposed
downfalls is that they usually fill their pockets in the end, failing to have
true consequences for their actions. Don’t forget the women he abused and that
he also won in the end. He lost a toy but gets to live his life in full. The
team on the field is interesting to me. I watched way too much Sam Howell tape
and came away impressed. Not so much that he can take a huge leap behind that
line along with questions in the backfield, but I think they will be in some
games because of him. They will get a few surprise wins and the defensive line
will bring pressure. If Chase Young can stay on the field this season, they are
even scarier. Most people, including myself, forgot that he was RDPOY in 2020. The
back end isn’t bad, either. With talented strengths and some glaring
weaknesses, this team has all the earmarks of a .500 team.
NFC NORTH
Minnesota Vikings (9-8, 3rd seed)- With their
9-0 record in games decided by 7 points or less (they even had a win at 8
points, too), the Vikings are guilty of the luckiest season in the history of
the league. It is, also, the strongest possible Boomerang Effect ever, but this
is the NFC! This team should be just as fun as last year. They traded Adam
Theilen for draft pick Jordan Addison as the #2 receiver. I have seen Theilen run
this preseason and it is brutal. My son just ran a 5.69 forty at his first flag
football practice (People seemed to think that it was fast for a 6 y.o., but I
am unsure). I think he can outrun Adam Theilen, though. Kirk Cousins is
sporting the best Fu Manchu in several seasons and should keep the team in
games. The defense won’t be stopping anyone again, but Brian Flores will at least
run enough blitzes that they’ll get there at a few key moments. They probably
don’t have a settled running backs room as Alex Mattison is expected to carry a
three down back load despite already being injured several times in his career.
Rumors are that they are looking at Kareem Hunt. That may be something that
comes to fruition, but I think the passing game will be great again.
Green Bay Packers (9-8, 7th seed)- As a
fan of the Browns and Bears for most of my life, the Packers are a thorn in my
side. As my favorite teams have gone through roughly 70 quarterbacks since Jim
McMahon and Bernie Kosar, respectively, the Packers have had two. Two. Of
course, I am jealous of this, so I have done the best I can to see if Jordan
Love is about to make the next 15 years of my life as annoying as the previous thirty.
I don’t think he is going to stink. He has improved. I once described him as a
kid with a nice arm that can only throw well exactly 15-20 yards down the field
between the hashes. Think of Philip Rivers with an arm, but completely unpolished
in his footwork. That footwork has improved, but he isn’t totally consistent with
it yet. There will be ups and downs with him, particularly when he forgets his
recent tutelage. It has produced better
throws down the sideline, but he still has some Derek Anderson in him where he
forgets to decrease the RPMs on some shorter, easier throws. Despite this, I
have them starting 5-0 before reality sets in and the schedule quirks get
tougher, but I cannot wait to see the headlines that week in Green Bay and
Chicago. The defense will have their usual hiccups, so the team will have ugly
moments during the weeks where Love is struggling and behind. They might really
be a 7-10 team, but I think they will hold on to that last spot after the hot
start.
Chicago Bears (8-9)- It’s starting to get harder and
harder for me to separate tape from emotion when it comes to Justin Fields. At
this point of his career, no one has started as badly as he has and become successful
since at least Troy Aikman. I am not sure what happens at Ohio State that
produces such terrible feet for quarterbacks, but it is an epidemic at this point,
and it is hard to get behind the signal callers that come out of my Alma Mater.
C.J. Stroud, thankfully, has shown better feet as he has progressed during the
preseason with Houston, so it was probably good that he got out when he could. The
biggest problem I see with Fields is that despite being a hard worker, he
regresses into bad habits at the worst moments. He probably shouldn’t have
played at all during his first season. It’s nice to have the most dangerous
running quarterback in the league, but that first season created bad pocket
awareness. There needed to be a balance and it was robbed from him behind that
terrible team. Last year, despite what was reported, the line played much
better later in the season, but Fields was bailing early and running into more
sacks, producing the horrid sack rate we have seen. I think he improves behind
a better team, but I wonder if the tape will match the decent record I have them
at. Can he continue to unlearn the habits and show improvement in the passing
game? I’m not so sure, but he will be fun for fantasy owners. If the wheels do
fall off, I hope the Bears can bail before their hope takes them too far.
Detroit Lions (7-10)- I wish this team had Jameson Williams
for the first six games of the season. I have them not being able to overcome a
tough start and Williams might be what would’ve been an edge, particularly
against Kansas City and Seattle during the first two weeks. They have a
reasonable schedule, but it has a few tough short stretches where other teams
have a rest advantage. I need to see Gibbs be a Percy Harvin without the migraines
to believe in the strategy, though I think it is a good idea in theory. Jared
Goff is playing in a nice situation away from the limelight, but I am not sure if
he is the answer. They have a flier on Hendon Hooker waiting in the wings for
next season, if need be. I think this team is a lot like the Vikings, but with
a worse quarterback. It’s easy to forget that despite the hot end to last season,
the defense was still 28th in points allowed. They made investments in
that side of the ball with Cam Sutton and C.J. Gardner-Johnson, but free agency
hits are not usually things to rely on. I do love the offensive line and
believe in the offense overall, so I could easily see this record flipped, but
I have them failing due to little things along with a questionable defense when
asked to make plays in the 5-12 yard area past the line of scrimmage.
NFC SOUTH
Atlanta Falcons (8-9, 4th seed)- There
have been a lot of reports about the easy schedules for Atlanta and New Orleans.
Those reports are accurate, but they fail to account for how this entire division
is rebuilding and that they still need the talent to beat the teams in front of
them. I see a questionable yet developing defense, but not one ready to make up
for the offense when it is not clicking. Are we sure Desmond Ridder is going to
provide the passing offense needed for them to take a step forward? I liked
Ridder out of college and still think he has a chance to be good, but the tape
was not kind. The one thing he did better than Marcus Mariota was not throw any
interceptions in his four games. His completion rate, ANY/A, and sack rates
were all comparable. I do, however, see the running game as the best unit in
the entire division, better than the strength of all the passing games, too.
The end of the season is going to be hilarious. I have Atlanta losing to New
Orleans during the final week but still holding onto the tiebreaker to win the
division.
New Orleans Saints (8-9)- The defense continues to
suffer from the eventual attrition of playing the salary cap game of going significantly
over each season and then performing gymnastics to make it all work (Hello
Browns in 2025!). The cap is mostly fake, but all the guaranteed money still must
be paid out and there is only so much that can be done with 40, 60, even 85-million-dollar
deficits. The cap is more fake for those in the minus twenty to thirty range. I
don’t see that much of a difference in the offense and the running game is unimpressive
overall. Missing Alvin Kamara for playing soccer with some dude’s head (for
review, horrific assaults are three games, while using a cell phone to bet in
your own locker room is anywhere from six games to a year) isn’t going to help.
Picking a division winner here is about as much fun as going to a restaurant where
all they serve is steamed rice or unsmoked, dry ham sandwiches.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-11)- The battle between Baker
Mayfield and Kyle Trask was so riveting that there was a video shared over social
media about just how many horrible incompletions they were throwing. When it
got to the games, though, Mayfield played better than Trask and it was obvious
who was going to win the job. There’s some scuttlebutt around the league that
the Bucs might be better than advertised because the receiving corps is still
good with Chris Godwin and Mike Evans (9 straight 1,000 yard seasons to begin
his career despite missing games in five of them). If Baker Mayfield wasn’t
good with Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham Jr. before they were totally cooked,
why should I believe in him now? The Buccaneers had an average offensive line
at best before Ryan Jensen announced his retirement, so Baker’s tendency to
panic in the pocket under pressure or trust his arm too much is surely to rise
again. There are questions in the backfield behind him, so I just don’t see the
support others are assuming. The defense looks like it will still be pretty
good with its remaining star power of Vea, Barrett, White, David, Dean, and
Winfield Jr. I just don’t really see it with the offense. Tampa Bay gets
another three years before complaining is allowed, that’s the five-year Super
Bowl rule.
Carolina Panthers (5-12)- When the NCAA basketball
tournament is talked about every year, the mantra for the top teams is always “survive
and advance.” That’s how the organization should feel about this season and how
Bryce Young should feel personally. Young, as expected, looks small out there.
Also, as expected, his accuracy and understanding of the schemes was on display
when he had time to throw the ball. I turned on the first preseason game
against the Giants and counted three big hits in a small number of plays. That
did not change much against the other teams, and I already mentioned how Adam
Theilen looks so slow that he still running routes from last year. With a depth
chart that reads rookie Jonathan Mingo, D.J. Chark, Terrace Marshall Jr.,
Laviska Shenault Jr., Ihmir Smith-Marsette behind Theilen, I see a room that
isn’t scaring most of the secondaries in the league. I hope for Young’s sake
that Miles Sanders can find holes when not running behind the Eagles offensive
line. Again, they are a team where I like most of the decisions being made, but
it’s going to take time.
NFC WEST
San Francisco 49ers (10-7, 2nd seed)- I
don’t like the Niners as much as most of the media. Nick Bosa and George Kittle
look like they are going to miss the first game against the Steelers. In fact,
I think the Steelers will win that game. Brock Purdy got away with a ton of
throws simply because Shanahan’s schemes are so good, but also because he got
insanely lucky. They still have all the talent they did last year before they
ran out of quarterbacks in the NFC Championship Game, but the schedule is brutal
outside of the division. They play the AFC North and the NFC East. They will
see Kittle and Bosa miss games because they tend to do that, even if it isn’t
week one against Pittsburgh. The idea of Sam Darnold playing a meaningful number
of snaps looms large. Can Kyle Shanahan work his magic on him? Plus, I always
look at the depth chart of the offensive line and wonder just how they are
pulling it off each year. Then again, they did lose every quarterback last
season. I can’t possibly make this record any worse because of the talent, but
don’t love them even though they are the 2nd seed in the NFC.
Seattle Seahawks (10-7, 5th seed)- When I
was writing full-time, it included the years of Tim Tebow and Geno Smith in New
York. It was fun and hilarious. If I was drugged and woken up after a period of
time and then told that I had to write “Geno Smith is good,” I would’ve assumed
it was still a dream, and asked for more drugs. Then I would’ve asked if the
person talking to me was high. After they said “yes,” I would’ve found the
first sober football fan I could and asked again. If they told me the same, I
would’ve asked to be knocked out. So, I am here with this shiner, sitting in a drug
fog telling the world that Geno Smith is good. Now, he is only extremely good
in specific ways, but Pete Carroll loves running the ball and then throwing it
deep. Geno Smith excels with situations when he is allowed to air it out. He
has just enough twitch in and around the pocket to buy the time needed to. I’m
also a little annoyed that the Seahawks are on my list of teams to watch the
condensed games of after I re-watch the Browns and Bears each week. I’ve spent
a good part of my life having worse stomach problems than that passenger on
Delta flight DL194 out of Atlanta last Friday when looking at those horrific
bright green uniforms. Thankfully, I have finally trained my eyes to tolerate
them enough to watch their entertaining games. I am now a part of my son’s life
again. The other teams on my must watch list: Lions, Vikings, Jets, Jags, and
Commanders.
Los Angeles Rams (4-13)- Matt Stafford’s wife decided
that it was a good idea to admit on her podcast that the Rams quarterback just
didn’t understand the youngsters these days and their obsession with these new-fangled
hand devices (smart phones, though he probably still calls them mobiles).
Cooper Kupp is seeing a specialist over his inability to stop pulling his
hamstring. Hilariously, the team is calling him “day-to-day.” This sounds a lot
like the 31% of preseason tissue injuries that tend to linger over the course
of the whole season (this is from the NFL itself as they started tracking this
under their Health & Wellness initiative). I do love how the remaining
names in the receiving corps sound made up: Ben Skowronek, Tutu Atwell, Van
Jefferson, Puka Nacua. Aaron Donald is not going to be able to do it himself
and he lost some support behind him this offseason on a defense that was 21st
in points allowed last year. Cam Akers and the team have apparently made up enough
that he is expected to carry the load for the team again. He was great during
the final six games of the year, but can we expect to see it go the whole
season? The next offseason might be the perfect time for Sean McVay to take a
year off before finding a better place to be in 2025.
Arizona Cardinals (4-13)- I considered making this
record worse after the last week. There’s a good argument to do so. If one
missed it, the Cardinals media team showed their coach give the most boring
speech for the beginning of the season. Sure, there are plenty of guys who can
be good coaches that don’t give off great impressions or are great in front of
the camera (Nick Sirianni’s opening presser is going to be the reference here
for a while), but I look at it another way. Someone from the PR and media departments
had to sign off on that opener and that was the best they could do. Arizona is
the worst-run franchise in the league with Dan Snyder gone and the players hate
them. Check out their poor players rating from The Athletic’s player survey, so
it is possible that it was just horribly mishandled. Information given in the survey
Included making the players pay for food in the cafeteria, which almost unheard
of these days. The roster is an absolute mess with no plan in place yet. The
few areas of strength are stacked at the same positions. The head coach or GM
seems to think that threatening the opposing team with not telling them who the
quarterback is going to be is a competitive advantage. Well, when those two
quarterbacks are Clayton Tune and Josh Dobbs, I’m pretty sure that opposing
teams could log a Johnny Manziel amount of film hours (A Blutarsky-esque 0.0,
according to his recent Netflix documentary) and do just fine against the
Cardinals this season. I think the wheels are turning here for Kyler Murray to
be traded to somebody (please be the Raiders, please be the Raiders) this
offseason to piggyback off the two top five picks they will have for the 2024
NFL Draft.
AFC PLAYOFFS
#2 Cincinnati over #7 Cleveland
#6 Baltimore over #3 New York Jets
#5 Los Angeles Chargers over #4 Jacksonville
#1 Kansas City over #6 Baltimore
#2 Cincinnati over #5 Los Angeles Chargers
#1 Kansas City over #2 Cincinnati
NFC PLAYOFFS
#2 San Francisco over #7 Green Bay
#6 Dallas over #3 Minnesota
#5 Seattle over #4 Atlanta
#1 Philadelphia over #6 Dallas
#5 Seattle over #2 San Francisco
#1 Philadelphia over #5 Seattle
SB 58
Philadelphia 34, Kansas City 31
