Podcast Tackles Social Issues, But Mannings Rule NFL

NEW PODCAST IS UP.

Since the proclamation, I am only 14-14 in my NFL picks. Never tell the Vegas Line Gods that you are ahead of them.

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The PODCAST: http://www.filefactory.com/file/a0h6d44/n/PolishguyPodcast_10-16-09_mp3

As always, email us at: PolishguyPodcast@hotmail.com

The Fallacies of College Football

I plan to touch on this in a podcast, but take a look at this response from a forum I am on. The argument beforehand was a long one involving the over-ranking of a college football power (Penn State) because of reputation, coach name and a cupcake early schedule.

The response:

This comment is not about any team in particular, because almost all of the traditional powers fall into this fallacy. All of the traditional powers tend to get over-ranked which can lend to the argument that you cannot take how teams were ranked at any one given time. It also can lend to the opposite argument because that person can say that everything ends up the same anyway in the sense that if two powers face each other early and both fall under the same fallacy, then you can use that data for an argument. (a 12 and 19 team facing each other is the same as a 32 and 39 team since there is 7 spots of difference, which of course assumes that the level of talent from 120 to 1 is linear, which...oh, never mind)

I do not think that there should be any polls at all for the first 8 weeks of the season. This good idea will not happen because the media and the public both love to argue about these numbers games that don't really have an answer.

Thirty years ago it was obvious what one, two or three teams were the best in the nation. The polls were okay. Then it became obvious that there were four to six candidates for the title every year and the BCS became necessary to satisfy the masses. Unfortunately, in just a short period of time (less than 15% of college football's total existence), it is now obvious most years that there are many candidates to be the best team in the land (This year is an anomaly where it seems there are only three). The nation is saturated with talent that has created a much more even playing field on a given Saturday, which is one of the reasons powers schedule cupcakes because many teams are not sure how many wins are even possible beyond the three easy ones.

A playoff is the answer to the question on how to make sure all of the candidates have their shot, but the powers who run this thing are scared of what will happen to their wallets; when they are just really scared of a big change like this. If the NFL had not learned from the AFL, we would not have the great product we have today. The profits for THE National Football League grow every year. The FBS can learn from the FCS. A playoff increases overall entertainment and probably will satisfy the masses more.

Of course, that is another fallacy because we may never see that the champion really is the best team in the nation. They will just be the team that put together 3 or 4 great games in a row or faced favorable matches for their strengths. Maybe that is the definition of a the best team. I don't know. Everyone has a different take on it.

Back to the polls. I think many good teams get overlooked because it is easy to rank teams by their name early in the season when the only research some pollsters do is see who has a good incoming freshman class. I think ranking of the teams after 8 weeks would give a better ranking of who is good. My fear is that the pollsters STILL would not watch the games and still back to their old ways; which is the whole problem in the first place.

An argument is only as good as the accuracy of the data given to the party in the debate and I think that the data with college football is inherently flawed. Of course, if the gray area did not exist, there would be no arguments. The spirit of the debate creates a lot of fun. That is fine because the whole goal of this thing is good entertainment.

Polishguy Propels Lions to Win, Goes 12-4 in Picks

The Detroit Lions Urinal Game of the Week has now been renamed the Washington Redskins Urinal Game of the Week due to the Lions win on Sunday. Voting came down to the 'Skins and the Browns, but Polishguy Headquarters (me) decided that losing to a team that had not won since 2007 deserved reocignition more. No one really is really sure if the Browns are still in the league. To paraphrase Major League, "Yeah, they have uniforms and everything."

Here are the Polishguy Picks of the Week. This season, I am 31-17 so far with a 12-4 week last week. This information is from my Pick 'em entry at ESPN.com.

at Chicago Bears (2-1) -10.5 Detroit Lions (1-2):PICK: Lions. They always play the Bears close. Calvin Johnson will give the Bears D fits for about 8 years.

Cincinnati Bengals (2-1) -5.5 at Cleveland Browns (0-3) PICK: Bengals. The Browns are planning to all go on the same plane this time. So they have that going for them.

at Indianapolis Colts (3-0) -8.5 Seattle Seahawks (1-2) PICK: Colts. Somehow Manning has taken it to even another level. He might be the best all-time when he is done. 'Hawks are still banged up.

New York Giants (3-0)-9.5 at Kansas City Chiefs (0-3) PICK: Giants. The G-men are just really good. The Chiefs have, um, Scott Pioli. Oh wait, no one who leaves the Patriots continues success.

at Washington Redskins (1-2) -7.5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-3) PICK: Bucs. Congrats to the 'Skins. They are actually a part of the first Wasington Redskins Urinal Game of the Week. How many no shows at the stadium for this one? Someone should tell Jason Campbell that he is not Doug Williams and does not have Timmy Smith or his cocaine behind him.

Tennessee Titans (0-3) -2.5 at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-2) PICK: Titans. If the Broncos are the worst 3-0 team ever, then the Titans are the best 3-0 team ever, right? I'm not sure the Titans have a quarterback anymore. I think last season was Kerry's last hurrah.

at Houston Texans (1-2) -9.5 Oakland Raiders (1-2) PICK: Houston. My darling and everyone's darling the Texans have not shown much yet at all. Good thing they play the worst #1 draft pick ever this side of Ryan Leaf. We are one whine to reporters away from a full-fledged imitation.

at New England Patriots (2-1) -2.5 Baltimore Ravens (3-0) PICK: Ravens. The Ravens with an offense is just plain scary, but they have not exactly faced the best of the best defenses so far. The Sweat-Shirted one can always scheme, so this one is a good test. I think they will pass it.

at New Orleans Saints (3-0) -6.5 New York Jets (3-0) PICK: Saints. I changed this one when I found out the Jets would be missing two corners. A team forced to blitz (NY) plus a team who throws the screen so well (NO) plus a QB who is Manning-esque in his mastery of an offense equals "cover."

Buffalo Bills (1-2) -1.5 at Miami Dolphins (0-3) PICK: Bills. The Dolphins called me in for a QB tryout this week. My contract demands were too high for Tuna, though. Even the crappy Bills with a crappy coach can beat a team without a QB. I am calling for the Dolphins to bring back my beloved T-Formation.

Dallas Cowboys (2-1) -3.5 at Denver Broncos (3-0) PICK: Dallas. This is a total "I can't stand that team" pick. I think the Broncos look like a team that will keep itself in games, a lot like when Orton manned my Bears a couple years ago, but i can't pick them. I can't stand Josh McDaniels though I thank him very much for Jay Cutler every day.

at San Francisco 49ers (2-1) -10.5 St. Louis Rams (0-3) PICK: Niners. They have to win this one. I just hope that Samurai Mike does not get them too worked up for this one after that crap in Minnesota last week.

at Pittsburgh Steelers (1-2) -6.5 San Diego Chargers (2-1) PICK: San Diego. There are a lot of things wrong with both of these teams, but I really think that Rivers is slightly better than Big Ben. I'll go with Rivers. No team will run in this one, with exception of breaking a lucky big one.

Monday, Oct 5, 2009
at Minnesota Vikings (3-0) -3.5 Green Bay Packers (2-1) PICK: Pack. I think the Favre thing put me over the top as a fan. I really think that I dislike the Vikings more than the Packers. Plus the Bears need the Pack to win this one to turn this season into a quagmire in the NFC North. I mean, assuming the Bears beat the Lions.

Talk to you soon. Baseball Playoff preview coming soon.